In April of 2020, a professor of medicine at Stanford University led a study to determine what percentage of the population had actually been exposed to COVID 19. He was testing for seroprevalence, or evidence of COVID antibodies in a person’s blood.
He was able to show that there were fifty times more infections than identified cases. His results were affirmed with eighty-two similar studies from around the world. What this scientifically derived data demonstrates is that the actual WuHan COVID fatality rate is 0.2 percent, not 3.0 percent, that is two deaths for every thousand, not three deaths for every hundred.
For perspective, in 2018, the most recent year for which I could find data, the plain old influenza/pneumonia fatality rate from Washington State Department of Health statistics was 1.7 percent.
The majority of people who are infected by COVID have very mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. These people were not identified in the early days, which resulted in a highly misleading fatality rate. That is what drove public policy. Even worse, it continues to sow fear and panic, because the perception of too many people about COVID is frozen in the misleading data from March.
From A Sensible and Compassionate Anti-COVID Strategy, by Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, M.D., Ph.D., Stanford University, October 9th, 2020
More good news,
We have all heard the rumors of asymptomatic spreaders. It could even be you or me feeling fine as we walk about town, shedding the COVID virus everywhere we go.
Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis published last month, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%. Bianca Nogrady, Nature.com, November 18, 2020.
The study referred in this article at Nature.com, Estimating the extent of asymptomatic COVID-19 and its potential for community transmission: Systematic review and meta analysis, was published October 9, 2020 on the peer reviewed website of the Journal of the Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Disease Canada.
The authors found asymptomatic individuals to be a much smaller percentage of the population that was much less likely to transmit the virus.
“Our estimates of the proportion of asymptomatic cases and their risk of transmission suggest that asymptomatic spread is unlikely to be a major driver of clusters or community transmission of infection”.
Last, but not least.
In Denmark, over the months of April and May of 2020, when “masks were uncommon and not among recommended public health measures”, researchers completed a study using 4862 participants above the age of eighteen as a test of the theory that masks reduce the risk of contracting SARS-cov-2.
The study revealed, “Infection with SARS-cov-2 occurred in 42 participants recommended masks, 1.9% and in 53 control participants, 2.1%” who did not wear masks.
The researchers concluded, “The recommendation to wear a surgical mask when outside the home did not reduce, at conventional levels of statistical significance, the incidence of SARS-covid-2 infection in mask wearers.”
Check out the study for yourself at ACPjournals.com, Effectiveness Of Adding A Mask Recommendation To Other Public Health Measures To Prevent SARS-cov-2 Infection In Danish Mask Wearers.
In a world in which facts no longer matter and the truth is relative I don’t expect accurate data provided through scientific research to change anything. The bureaucracies that rule our lives are like the giant container ships that cruise by Port Townsend every day. Once they are up to speed and moving in a certain direction there is very little anyone can do to change their course. Regardless, I provide this information with the hope that as individuals we can decide whether we want to continue to live in fear of each other, or lead the way forward to a time when we can be together once again.
“There wasn’t a county in the U.S. where a minimum wage worker clocking in 40 hours a week could afford to rent a two-bedroom apartment in 2019.” That’s according to a report by the National Low Income Housing Coalition. This seems to be a sad reality. Right here in Jefferson County it is a very big concern.
Of course, politicians talk about affordable housing. They spout important- sounding proclamations. They empanel task forces and have meetings and churn out lots of paper about affordable housing.
What has all this wheel-spinning accomplished?
The only incorporated city in Jefferson County, Port Townsend, has spent a ton of money and donated valuable land in a pathetic attempt at a solution. I speak of the Cherry Street Project. It has been written about in detail on this website for going on four years. Cherry Street is a fiasco. In the end it will likely have to be demolished. It never did make any sense.
A while back the county donated land to OlyCap to build affordable housing. They rolled out plans for a costly multi-story apartment building. Nothing more has happened.
About the only thing happening is the growing homeless camp at the Jefferson County Fairgrounds.
Why is there so much talk and no meaningful action? Well, it would appear that government is not the answer. They can’t seem to get anything done. They have the land but they lack the skill set and/or the will to produce tangible results.
According to the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at New York University there are four reasons for the lack of affordable housing.
The first is that incomes for many workers are just too low compared to the cost of housing.
“Some people think that full-time workers can afford housing, but that’s a myth. In some housing markets, only workers earning hourly wages of $30 or more can comfortably afford housing. In fact, there is no metro area in which full-time workers earning the Federal minimum wage can comfortably afford the costs of a typical 2-bedroom rental unit.
“On average, a worker needs to earn $20.30 an hour to afford a typical 2-bedroom apartment. In other words, someone earning the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour would need to work almost three full-time jobs in order to afford a typical two-bedroom apartment. And the problem is getting worse, not better. Incomes for low- and moderate-income workers have largely stagnated while housing costs have risen.”
The second reason is closely related to the first: for-profit developers generally don’t respond to the demand for housing among lower-income households.
“It’s not because they don’t want to, it’s because they can’t. The rents and home prices that many households can afford to pay are too low to cover the costs of developing and operating newly constructed housing. Some households’ incomes are too low to cover even the costs of maintaining and insuring existing housing.”
A third problem is that certain types of government regulation raise production costs and reduce the overall supply of all types of housing.
“For example, limits on density restrict the number of homes that can be built on available land, and complicated and lengthy approvals processes can slow down the construction process and even cause developers to go elsewhere, making it difficult for the supply of housing to keep pace with increases in demand and rising housing prices throughout the entire housing market.
“It may seem counterintuitive, but it’s true: limits on construction of middle- and high-end housing also affect affordability in the lower half of the housing market. Too little building for moderate- and high-income households hurts people further down the income spectrum, because moderate- and higher income households end up driving up rents on units that would otherwise be relatively affordable.
“There are good reasons for many government regulations. But it’s important to remember that increases in development costs are often passed on to families. We should at least take a hard look at regulations that affect development costs to figure out whether they are unavoidable and the benefits outweigh the costs, which can run to the tens of thousands of dollars per unit.
“Reducing regulation will not lower costs enough to make new housing development for low-income households economical without government subsidies, but it could make housing more affordable for families in the middle.”
A final problem is a lack of government funding.
“To expand the availability of affordable homes, federal, state and local governments fund a range of programs that successfully house millions of families. Unfortunately, these programs are not keeping pace with the need. Federal housing assistance over the past 15 years has been stagnant or declining at the same time that the number of renters with very low incomes (less than 50% of AMI) is increasing. Currently, only about one in four eligible households with a housing burden receives government housing assistance of any kind.”
In considering these four issues it would seem that our local governments could encourage and promote economic development to support a better job base, lower the cost to build by easing land use regulations and contribute part of their tax revenue from increased growth to very low income housing
Neither the city nor the county have done much to promote economic development. In fact, they have severely restricted economic development through tight land use regulations. This action means that there are not enough family wage jobs to support a healthy community. Because there are not enough jobs there is also a lack of tax revenue that could go toward affordable housing. In addition, due to the restrictive land use regulations there is no good place to build affordable housing.
We do not lack the land. We lack the will in our government to actually solve this issue. It has been government policy and regulation that has created the affordable housing crisis here. Why does it continue? Because that is what the majority of voters keep voting for. All the talk of affordable housing, living wage jobs or family wage jobs means nothing as long as voters do not want real change. As a result, we will continue to turn Jefferson County into a place for only the well off.
My school motto is “Acta non Verba.” Deeds not Words. That is the only mindset that will make any difference in our affordable housing crisis.
[Update: In the 24 hours since this story was published, the death rate in Washington for COVID infections has dropped another 5.6%.]
The number of people currently hospitalized for COVID in Washington is higher than its has ever been, and so is the number of people on ventilators. But the number of people dying from COVID is now so relatively small that the overall death rate has dropped dramatically.
As of 11/24/20, the last Department of Health reporting date, 886 people with a suspected or laboratory confirmed COVID infection are hospitalized. 102 people are on ventilators. The number of people who have died from COVID from the start stands at 2,704. But in recent weeks so few additional deaths have been attributed to COVID as a cause of death (not the cause, which is very rarely the case) that the overall mortality rate for COVID infections has dropped to 1.8%.
That rate would be terrifying were it the daily, marginal rate, meaning that for every 100 new infections, almost two people would die. But that is the average for all infections since data started being collected. The mortality rate was over 5% earlier this year. To drop so sharply in the space of several months means that the absence of large number of new COVID deaths has pulled the overall average down by more than 80%.
That greater survival rate is no doubt due to the improved skill and knowledge of medical professionals in treating COVID, as well as the possibility that the virus may have weakened. It may also be due to the fact vulnerable populations are doing a better job of protecting themselves, and that state government ended the practice of sending elderly COVID patients to nursing homes to free up hospital capacity–which was never in danger of being overwhelmed, as we have previously reported.
For months at the start of the crisis, Governor Inslee returned elderly COVID patients to nursing homes where the virus raged. Those facilities accounted for large concentrations of COVID deaths. 90% of all COVID deaths are among those above age 60. These people suffered from pre-existing serious health conditions. His administration offered monetary incentives to nursing home facilities to take back COVID patients and he rolled back regulations that made it possible for nursing homes to take in sick patients, even as he was publicly making contrary statements about how the virus should be fought.
Jefferson County has had one COVID death, a ninety-year old woman who was at the time already in hospice. Of the county’s reported 152 confirmed infections, 15 of those people have been hospitalized, some as little as an overnight stay for observation.
In case you weren’t paying attention, on November 16 we began the eighth extension of Governor Jay Inslee’s extra-legal Wujan Flu dictates first initiated way back on March 23rd. The Legislature has let the Governor do what he wants. In Jefferson County all progress has been erased by what amounts to a statewide rollback of the reopening process.
As a public service I have reviewed the latest updates from our state health department so you don’t have to. Spoiler Alert: It’s more than likely too late to keep the Governor happy and get together with your family for Thanksgiving (though I do offer a last minute solution at the end of this article.) But if you get on it right away Christmas gatherings with Grandma and Grandpa could still happen. You’ll need to get them in your house over the next couple of weeks and keep them there until the end of the month.
Here is the number one directive as quoted from the updated COVID protocols:
Indoor Social Gatherings with people from outside your household are prohibited unless they (a) quarantine for fourteen days (14) prior to the social gathering; or (b) quarantine for seven (7) days prior to the social gathering and receive a negative Covid-19 test no more than 48-hours prior to the gathering. A household is defined as individuals residing in the same domicile.
I am not making this up.
And should you think nobody is watching what is happening outside of your house, the Governor has that covered, as well: “Outdoor Social Gatherings should be limited to (5) people outside your household.”
Please remind them not to litter. Those masks we see discarded all around town really are not an improvement on Autumn leaves.
The rest of the no-go list is somewhat familiar to everyone by now. Restaurants and bars are closed to everything except outdoor dining and take-out. Gyms are closed. Bowling facilities made the list. Can anybody tell me how many bowling alleys are left in this state, and have they been a serious problem in the spread of this virus?
Of course movie theaters, museums, aquariums and zoos are completely closed.
If you haven’t been to the grocery store or Co-op lately, please know that you may be required to wait in line outside and/or wash your hands before entering.
The latest COVID mandates require retail establishments to limit the number of customers to twenty-five percent of capacity, and that includes staff.
For PT’s QFC, that is one hundred people total. I don’t know what it is for the Co-op or Safeway.
As aggravating as this is, be nice to the workers enforcing these rules. This is not their store policy. It is a policy mandated by the Governor. Retail establishments must follow these mandates or face reprisals from government agencies.
Public schools have also rolled back to all remote learning starting the week of November 30th. My youngest daughter was happy to return to her school earlier in November. She attended for a total of five days before the shutdown. No date has been given for a return to the classroom.
This is just a review of the highlights. Feel free to peruse the full details for yourself at governor.wa.gov.
It pays to learn the rules in this strange, new world. If you happen to go by my house on Thanksgiving and see a group of people inside, please know that there’s no need to bother the Governor. It is simply a memorial service for our pet turkey*.
*As per the Governor’s latest COVID dictates, up to thirty people are allowed.
Rights not asserted are rights lost. If we acquiesce in abuses of governmental power, we become complicit in those actions. And then one day we wake up and wonder, “Where did America go?”
I am suing Jefferson County because it is violating my First Amendment rights to freedom of expression. It has censored my comments from a public forum it has created. It wants to control the dialogue and fabricate an impression of unity and consensus, when, in fact, the reality is many of us dissent from what our elected and appointed officials are doing with the powers we have given them.
On Monday, November 23, 2020, I filed suit in the United States District Court for Western Washington. I am the sole plaintiff. The defendant is Jefferson County. I seek only $1 dollar in nominal damages. What I want is for Jefferson County to treat the public forum it has created through its official page as the public forum it is, subject to all the protections citizens would enjoy were it any other public forum, such as a town hall meeting, the sidewalks of our community or the steps of the courthouse. I want them to follow the law and not engage in viewpoint discrimination.
For this lawsuit I must thank those people who successfully sued President Donald Trump for blocking them from his Twitter feed. He violated their First Amendment rights by discriminating against them in access to the public forum he had created. He did so based on the content of their speech–which sometimes was extremely, shall we say, extreme. But even the President does not have the right to prevent speech because he does not like what he might hear or see, or because he wants to prevent others from hearing viewpoints he disfavors.
That case was Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University versus Trump. The decision from the Second Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals was delivered just a little over a year ago. President Trump lost and was ordered to unblock plaintiffs. The decision has since been used to reverse similar unconstitutional conduct by elected officials at the other end of the political spectrum from President Trump, such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez.
Isn’t America seriously the best?
The Second Circuit applied very clear rulings by the United States Supreme Court that government does not operate in a Constitution-free zone on the Internet. Our public squares are now Twitter, Facebook and increasingly Parler, MeWe and Gab. This is where government faces citizens, and where citizens share their views and deeply held beliefs with other citizens. What President Trump did is what Jefferson County has done to me–and others, as I am learning since news of my lawsuit was reported on the unofficial Jefferson County Washington Facebook page.
The official Facebook page of Jefferson County government is not to be confused with the Facebook news outlet called “Jefferson County Washington.” That page is sponsored by Joe D’Amico and written mostly by Patrick Sullivan, former editor of the Port Townsend Leader. I have no problem with them excluding me if that is what they want to do. That is a private forum. The government’s page is a public forum. That makes a world of difference.
I discovered that whoever administers the Jefferson County Government Facebook page had blocked me, and had also deleted at least one comment I had posted relating to COVID-19. So I got a lawyer to stop this practice and make a point of constitutional law that will prevent county government from censoring anyone else.
My lawyer is Greg Overstreet, a former Washington Special Assistant Attorney General. He has run a multi-state litigation group and has nearly three decades of legal experience, including years of experience suing Jefferson County. My case will help him launch a new public interest legal effort called the Jefferson County Accountability Project. He is also the in-house counsel for Joe D’Amico and his corporations. I am fortunate that Mr. Overstreet would take my case. Look, I’m taking on government. I need a good lawyer. I need someone who will stand with me and not be cowed by the pressure government can bring against a citizen who dares challenge them. I spent my legal career representing the little guy against big government. I know the kind of battle government can wage against a single citizen, and that’s all I am now. Years ago I hung up my lawyer spurs. I think I have found the right attorney and the right ally to see me through this fight.
I don’t want money, though my lawyer will want his fees paid. The federal statute under which we brought the complaint entitles Mr. Overstreet to an award of his fees and our costs if we prevail, which I think we will. Dare I say, “This is an open and shut case”? I would hope that Jefferson County corrects itself immediately and stops Mr. Overstreet’s clock from running on this case. I don’t know how they can win. What they can do is waste taxpayer money. I hope they won’t do that.
But why sue? Why not simply ask them to unblock my comments and never again censor me or anyone else? We are going to court because that is what it takes to hold accountable a government that abuses its powers and violates the Constitution. We need brakes on government. That is frequently the role of the courts. The fact that Jefferson County did this even after the national media widely celebrated President Trump’s court defeat for similar conduct shows they don’t take seriously enough what the Constitution has to say about the rights of individual citizens. Maybe they forgot. Maybe they thought they could get away with it, or nobody would ever seek to hold them accountable. We are simply asking a Federal court to reacquaint them with the First Amendment to the United States Constitution and the foundational principle of the Bill of Rights in a manner they won’t too easily forget.
“Will it be necessary for us to form armed nightly patrols?”
Charles Hough, who lives about 200 yards from the homeless encampment at the Jefferson County Fairgrounds, has asked the Board of County Commissioners to act before someone is hurt by the dangerous people who have become his neighbors. He is not alone. The BOCC has received multiple letters from people on all sides of the Fairgrounds about their encounters with transients/homeless individuals who are on drugs or experiencing frightening mental health incidents. Children have also had alarming encounters. Neighborhs have experienced a spike in thefts and property crimes. The police are being called several times a week to the Fairgrounds and nearby streets to deal with the problems.
While local non-profits have offered to provide someone in the Fairgrounds as a kind of monitor of the population there, they will have no authority or resources to enforce order or prevent criminal activity and drug and alcohol abuse. They will not be patrolling nearby streets where problems are occurring.
The recent experience of Mr. Hough shows how fraught this situation is. The individual in question is known to police. He was housed at Western State Hospital after threatening a woman who lives on top of the hill over the Fairgrounds. He had been armed at the time with a sharp implement. He is back and again roaming the neighborhood near the homeless encampment.
Mr. Hough told us he believes he encountered this individual previously when he saw someone in the early morning darkness on his property examining his shed. Now he has reason to believe this individual is claiming Mr. Hough’s backyard for himself. Mr. Hough has reason to believe, as explained in the letter, that this individual has been in his backyard at night watching the family through windows. Mr. Hough says he was advised by police to expect this man to return now that he has focused on Mr. Hough and his house.
Here is Mr. Hough’s letter to the Commissioners. It will be read aloud today at their weekly meeting.
On Wednesday morning, December [sic–November] 18th, I went outside at 6 am to go on my daily morning walk. As I go outside my home, I see a small black dog with a red lite-up collar. At first I thought that it was my neighbor’s dog. It is pitch dark outside so I wear a headlamp, reflective vest and a belt that lights up red for my safety. The small dog comes over and I am petting and talking to it. This man comes up from behind me and says “Why are you stalking me?” Now remember that I am standing on my property and it is 6 am and very dark outside. I told him that I was going on a walk and I was not stalking him. With all the reflective and lighted safety equipment I was wearing, it would be hard to stalk someone without being seen. He then said that I was on my phone and that I saw him and I said “Oh there’s Peter and I am going to stalk him.” I told him that this is where I live. He replied that this was where he lives too. Remember that he is standing in my yard. I now realized that he was not in his right mind so I told him that I was going on my walk and to have a nice day and I started my walk.
Later I am thinking about this and I figured out that what he saw was me turning off my phone alarm while I was inside my home. For him to have seen this, he would have to be standing in my back yard since we leave our blinds open and the lights were on inside the home.
I filed a police report later that morning.
We live in the Lynnesfield addition which is behind the county fairgrounds. I am starting to feel that it’s not safe for myself, my family and my neighbors to walk in our neighborhood without some kind of protection or weapon. The homeless encampment that is currently at the fairgrounds is wrong and is getting very dangerous. This is not the first confrontation with this man harassing other people. As the police told me when I was filing the police report, Peter has mental issues. They have received many calls regarding him and currently has restraining orders filed against him.
Will it be necessary for us to organize armed nightly patrols of our neighborhood in order to feel safe and be able to walk on our streets and not have to worry about threatening harassment and people trespassing on our properties? I’m sure that the Jefferson County Commissioners are aware of all the 911 calls made to the police about incidents occurring at the fairgrounds. What is it going to take for this to stop…someone being hurt or killed? I no longer feel safe in my own home or for the safety of my friends and neighbors. I understand that this is not an easy problem to solve but this cannot continue.
![COVID Hospitalizations Reach Record; Death Rate Nears Zero [Updated]](https://i0.wp.com/www.porttownsendfreepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Screenshot-11.png?resize=1020%2C574&ssl=1)
