In April of 2020, a professor of medicine at Stanford University led a study to determine what percentage of the population had actually been exposed to COVID 19. He was testing for seroprevalence, or evidence of COVID antibodies in a person’s blood.
He was able to show that there were fifty times more infections than identified cases. His results were affirmed with eighty-two similar studies from around the world. What this scientifically derived data demonstrates is that the actual WuHan COVID fatality rate is 0.2 percent, not 3.0 percent, that is two deaths for every thousand, not three deaths for every hundred.
For perspective, in 2018, the most recent year for which I could find data, the plain old influenza/pneumonia fatality rate from Washington State Department of Health statistics was 1.7 percent.
The majority of people who are infected by COVID have very mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. These people were not identified in the early days, which resulted in a highly misleading fatality rate. That is what drove public policy. Even worse, it continues to sow fear and panic, because the perception of too many people about COVID is frozen in the misleading data from March.
From A Sensible and Compassionate Anti-COVID Strategy, by Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, M.D., Ph.D., Stanford University, October 9th, 2020
More good news,
We have all heard the rumors of asymptomatic spreaders. It could even be you or me feeling fine as we walk about town, shedding the COVID virus everywhere we go.
Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis published last month, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%. Bianca Nogrady, Nature.com, November 18, 2020.
The study referred in this article at Nature.com, Estimating the extent of asymptomatic COVID-19 and its potential for community transmission: Systematic review and meta analysis, was published October 9, 2020 on the peer reviewed website of the Journal of the Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Disease Canada.
The authors found asymptomatic individuals to be a much smaller percentage of the population that was much less likely to transmit the virus.
“Our estimates of the proportion of asymptomatic cases and their risk of transmission suggest that asymptomatic spread is unlikely to be a major driver of clusters or community transmission of infection”.
Last, but not least.
In Denmark, over the months of April and May of 2020, when “masks were uncommon and not among recommended public health measures”, researchers completed a study using 4862 participants above the age of eighteen as a test of the theory that masks reduce the risk of contracting SARS-cov-2.
The study revealed, “Infection with SARS-cov-2 occurred in 42 participants recommended masks, 1.9% and in 53 control participants, 2.1%” who did not wear masks.
The researchers concluded, “The recommendation to wear a surgical mask when outside the home did not reduce, at conventional levels of statistical significance, the incidence of SARS-covid-2 infection in mask wearers.”
Check out the study for yourself at ACPjournals.com, Effectiveness Of Adding A Mask Recommendation To Other Public Health Measures To Prevent SARS-cov-2 Infection In Danish Mask Wearers.
In a world in which facts no longer matter and the truth is relative I don’t expect accurate data provided through scientific research to change anything. The bureaucracies that rule our lives are like the giant container ships that cruise by Port Townsend every day. Once they are up to speed and moving in a certain direction there is very little anyone can do to change their course. Regardless, I provide this information with the hope that as individuals we can decide whether we want to continue to live in fear of each other, or lead the way forward to a time when we can be together once again.
In case you weren’t paying attention, on November 16 we began the eighth extension of Governor Jay Inslee’s extra-legal Wujan Flu dictates first initiated way back on March 23rd. The Legislature has let the Governor do what he wants. In Jefferson County all progress has been erased by what amounts to a statewide rollback of the reopening process.
As a public service I have reviewed the latest updates from our state health department so you don’t have to. Spoiler Alert: It’s more than likely too late to keep the Governor happy and get together with your family for Thanksgiving (though I do offer a last minute solution at the end of this article.) But if you get on it right away Christmas gatherings with Grandma and Grandpa could still happen. You’ll need to get them in your house over the next couple of weeks and keep them there until the end of the month.
Here is the number one directive as quoted from the updated COVID protocols:
Indoor Social Gatherings with people from outside your household are prohibited unless they (a) quarantine for fourteen days (14) prior to the social gathering; or (b) quarantine for seven (7) days prior to the social gathering and receive a negative Covid-19 test no more than 48-hours prior to the gathering. A household is defined as individuals residing in the same domicile.
I am not making this up.
And should you think nobody is watching what is happening outside of your house, the Governor has that covered, as well: “Outdoor Social Gatherings should be limited to (5) people outside your household.”
Please remind them not to litter. Those masks we see discarded all around town really are not an improvement on Autumn leaves.
The rest of the no-go list is somewhat familiar to everyone by now. Restaurants and bars are closed to everything except outdoor dining and take-out. Gyms are closed. Bowling facilities made the list. Can anybody tell me how many bowling alleys are left in this state, and have they been a serious problem in the spread of this virus?
Of course movie theaters, museums, aquariums and zoos are completely closed.
If you haven’t been to the grocery store or Co-op lately, please know that you may be required to wait in line outside and/or wash your hands before entering.
The latest COVID mandates require retail establishments to limit the number of customers to twenty-five percent of capacity, and that includes staff.
For PT’s QFC, that is one hundred people total. I don’t know what it is for the Co-op or Safeway.
As aggravating as this is, be nice to the workers enforcing these rules. This is not their store policy. It is a policy mandated by the Governor. Retail establishments must follow these mandates or face reprisals from government agencies.
Public schools have also rolled back to all remote learning starting the week of November 30th. My youngest daughter was happy to return to her school earlier in November. She attended for a total of five days before the shutdown. No date has been given for a return to the classroom.
This is just a review of the highlights. Feel free to peruse the full details for yourself at governor.wa.gov.
It pays to learn the rules in this strange, new world. If you happen to go by my house on Thanksgiving and see a group of people inside, please know that there’s no need to bother the Governor. It is simply a memorial service for our pet turkey*.
*As per the Governor’s latest COVID dictates, up to thirty people are allowed.
It has been five months since our family business was declared non-essential. I struggle to remember all that has happened, and at the same time know that we should never forget.
I think this all started with a viral outbreak from China. Then came a quarantine because our leaders told us we would kill each other if we didn’t stay home and wear masks.
Then there was Governor Inslee’s economic shut down, and infamous essential vs. non-essential dictate sending small businesses in Washington State into a death spiral.
Then there were protests. Or was it looting? Or was it a riot? I don’t remember if the protest, looting, and riots were about the virus. Seems like it had something to do with justice, but the results were lawlessness. Everyone forgot about death by COVID when they could see there were no limitations placed on individuals when burning, beating, and looting.
Despite the problems elsewhere, there is good news for my Port Townsend family of four. With everything closed and nowhere to go, our monthly expenses were less than anticipated. The lack of a paycheck for months on end hasn’t decimated our savings as we thought it might, but we aren’t through this yet.
Our business is still alive. Paychecks may become a regular thing again. Looks like we will be able to pay our mortgage when it comes out of forbearance next month. We are still sorting, counting, and packaging product as a family around the kitchen table. My wife is still doing all the shipping.
I imagine our daily lives are somewhat like everyone else’s. The group gatherings, the summer travel, the festivals, the concerts by which we celebrate and recognize the mileposts in life have been cancelled. It has been hard to tell one week from the next.
I have tried to stay in touch with other families and friends in our community with some success, but so many people seem to have gone underground, only doing what they have to do, keeping to themselves, keeping their distance.
The unemployment process has worked for our former employees. With the added federal dollars, the government check was better than we could provide. What my wife has done over the last few months is to tear apart and rebuild our business so it can survive in unfriendly economic times. It is smaller, more efficient, and eventually will be able to operate from anywhere.
The business climate that motivated the rebuild had been developing for years, created primarily by elected officials who have rarely had to meet a payroll or balance a budget. The Wuhan Virus economic shut down just accelerated the process. In simple terms, state-mandated high minimum wages and mandatory time off for entry-level employees eliminates jobs. Not what we wanted to, but we are moving in the direction we have to go in order to survive.
I don’t know what Governor Jay Inslee is up to at this point, and I don’t care. Over the last several months he has demonstrated complete disregard for the small business owners of his state. All I can conclude, if he wins a third term as governor, is that the people of Washington no longer expect much from their elected officials.
School is supposed to start on September 8th. Families were asked to commit through the end of November to either an on-line version, or a couple of days of the week in school and a couple of days online.
The schools have made a massive effort to be ready. I have confidence in the teachers. I want my kids in a classroom with their peers. Yet, I have seen the damage done to the mental state of my fellow citizens. I would rather not put my kids into the pressure cooker that I expect the next few months to be, so online school is our choice.
All of us have witnessed the clear dividing line in this town during this experience. Many if not all of the don’t-open-up crowd either didn’t need one or haven’t gone without a paycheck. I was shocked to hear good citizens of independent means tell me that the people of our town should go without work for months so that they could feel safe.
The hardest thing about living in Port Townsend over the last several months hasn’t been the pandemic or the economic crisis. It has been the politics.
If a person does not march in lockstep with the prevailing opinion, that person risks becoming an outcast. Everyone assumes you agree with the prevailing opinion because you are here. Why would you be here if you didn’t agree with the prevailing opinion?
A person has to watch what they say, what they do, where they are seen, and who they associate with. God help this person if they put the wrong campaign sign in their yard. God help this person if they are seen at the wrong protest, or not seen at the right protest. If an individual hazards to make it known that they might support a candidate or concept that stands for anything but the prevailing opinion, they risk a verbal assault of vulgarities screamed in their face. Those less “passionate”–those who won’t scream at you–will just no longer acknowledge your existence. They will look right through you as you pass them on the street.
We all have roles to play in the future of Port Townsend. If we follow the model fed us by the establishment media we will continue down the road to an insular community of close-minded individuals. I would like to think that Port Townsend would resist this prospect, but it may be too late.
Related: Part 1 of this series, “Life in Port Townsend for a Family with a ‘Non-Essential’ Business”
As of Friday, June 26th, 2020, according to Executive Decree 20-03 from the Washington State Secretary of Health, “Every person in Washington State must wear a face covering that covers their noses when in any indoor or outdoor public setting.”
Initially it was just for Yakima County, which appears to be experiencing an increase in community spread. But, just like the stay at home orders of this past March, our thoughtful governor doesn’t want to leave anybody out of the fun no matter what the China Virus situation is where they live.
It should concern you that this is being done by one man, Governor Jay Inslee, whose self-declared emergency powers, as defined by state law, should have expired on the 31st of March, thirty days after declaration. I have seen no effective push back from our elected representatives, no debate in the halls of the House or Senate in Olympia, no emergency session called to extend or terminate these powers.
I read through executive decree 20-03 so you don’t have to. Here are some of the highlights: At least for now there are exceptions that allow removal of a face covering. I picked a handful that might help deliver some clarity to Jefferson County:
–We are not required to wear a mask while driving alone in a car.
–We are not required to wear a mask while engaged in indoor or outdoor exercise activities.
–We are not required to wear a mask while sleeping.
And just in case you were wondering, in a delicious irony, the governor’s order does not apply to persons who are incarcerated. So breaking the mask decree, and incurring the penalty of losing freedom, could be another possible option for those among us committed to the no mask ideology.
Asking nicely doesn’t please our dear leader anymore. Governor Inslee has made it clear that members of the public are required by law to comply with his order, and violators may be subject to criminal penalties. Businesses that don’t comply could face the loss of a license, fines, or injunctions.
If this sounds authoritarian, it is. But I will let you in on a secret. On Washington State’s Coronavirus.gov website, the second question on the most-frequently-asked list for Governor Jay Inslee’s order, reads as follows:
Q: I have a reason I cannot wear a facemask. Am I required to document or prove that?
And the answer from the same Washington State website:
A: This order does not require you to document or prove a reason for not wearing a face covering.
When is this all going to end? In pursuit of that answer, I have spent more time than I care to remember asking questions of bureaucrats and their minions over the last few months. I have learned that the bureaucracies overseeing our existence are organized in a top down manner. The top tells everyone in the bureaucracy what to do and everyone’s job is to do it. There is no room for creative solutions, no reward for out-of-the box thinking, no adjusting for reality on the ground.
As far as the top is concerned, the guidelines for operating in the center of a virus outbreak in Yakima should be exactly the same as for operating in the center of a non-virus outbreak in Port Townsend.
The top has decided that masking and social distancing are what needs to be done, and the bureaucracies are moving forward with this plan. Whether these methods are effective, or not, no longer matters.
As for when masking will end, I quote Sandy Gessner, Assistant Superintendent of Curriculum for the Port Townsend School District, from a recent online meeting with parents to explain the current plan for the upcoming school year. Please remember, more than likely this is not her policy. This is the policy she has been given by her superiors: “All students must wear a mask until there is a vaccine…or we have herd immunity.”
The future for our students is the future for us.
If you are wearing a facemask and it makes you feel better, then by all means don’t stop.
If you aren’t wearing a facemask, and the governor threatens you with criminal penalties, just say “I Can’t Breathe.”
Jefferson County has gone all in on community masking. On June 5 Dr. Thomas Locke, Jefferson County Public Health Officer, issued a directive requiring that masks be worn in all indoor spaces. Just wander around town and look in the windows and on the doors of local businesses. From what I see, Dr. Thomas Locke is at risk of being promoted to the unenviable position of High Inquisitor of Public Health. Business owners in our county have been involuntarily recruited as enforcement goons. If life imitates art, next to arrive will be the inquisitorial squads.
Just in case you weren’t paying attention, (don’t worry I am), on that same day the World Health Organization issued their updated Advice On The Use Of Masks in the context of Covid 19. Deep in the weeds of the document I found this information, which has not changed since the last update on April 6th.
At present there is no direct evidence (from studies on Covid 19 and in healthy people in the community) on the effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including Covid 19.
Still undecided? Maybe a recent letter originating from infectious disease experts at the University of Washington and signed by some twelve hundred doctors, medical experts, and whoever happened to be sitting at their computer when the signature request arrived, will help settle the mask debate. Or, If you are suffering from riot video binging induced insomnia, it might help you get back to sleep. Either way, here are the core messages delivered to us by academics at University of Washington:
A) The anti-masking and stay at home order protests of a month ago, where thousands were disobeying masking and social distance decrees, must be condemned by health experts because these actions “not only oppose public health interventions, but are also rooted in white nationalism and run contrary to respect for black lives.”
B) The Black Lives Matter protests of recent days, where thousands were also disobeying masking and social distance decrees, should not be condemned by health experts as a danger to public welfare because “White supremacy is a lethal public health issue” and the demonstrations are “Vital to the national public health”
In a desperate attempt to clear the fog of confusion and hypocrisy that has descended upon us, I went to the website of the American Council on Science and Health whose mission is to promote science and debunk junk. They can usually be relied upon for solid, fact-base, opinions.
In an article dated April 1st, 2020 and titled, Corona Virus, Is It Time to Consider Face Masks for Civilians, Dr. Chuck Dinerstein, M.D., M.B.A. reviews what is known and what he has learned from people whose opinion he trusts and makes this final tepid conclusion; “There is little downside to wearing a mask when you venture out of your home, and the real possibility of an upside benefit.”
I could say the same thing about wearing my underwear on the outside of my pants. Let’s hope the Health Department doesn’t get any ideas about this.
In all seriousness, it should be increasingly clear, that we are being lied to by those who wish to consolidate their power and undermine our freedoms. This cannot continue.
If you are wearing a mask and it makes you feel better, than by all means don’t stop.
If you aren’t wearing a mask and somebody objects, just say you are protesting injustice.
