The closer you look, the more problematic a new Port Townsend aquatic center appears. Operating costs would greatly exceed initial projections, according to the feasibility study prepared to boost the city’s promotion of a new aquatic/fitness center. The estimated annual operating expenditure of almost $2.1 million is more than twice the cost once projected by the city’s Sustainability Task Force and more than six times current operating costs for Mountain View pool.

To have any hope of avoiding financial failure, the new aquatic center would have to generate revenues as much as seventeen times greater than current operations, and hit that mark as soon the second year of operation.

And still a new P.T. aquatic center would run annual deficits of around $400,000.

Its projected operating costs would be greater than those of the Sequim YMCA and the Shore Aquatic Center in Port Angeles, and yet its revenue would be less.

These are just a few of the red flags that abound in the feasibility study for a new $38-$53 million aquatic/fitness center for Port Townsend. I discussed some of the problems with this document in “Drowning in Red Ink: Mountain View Pool and Proposed Aquatic Center.” Here I will delve deeper into why this “feasibility study” is a clanging alarm bell that should stop any responsible and prudent decision maker in her tracks.

A View of Port Townsend from the Rocky Mountains

The feasibility study was prepared for the city and its aquatic center steering committee by Ballard King & Associates of Highland Park, Colorado. They did not conduct any market research in and around Port Townsend or the rest of the county. Based on their report, it’s easy to conclude that they’ve never even been here. Their 69-page analysis exclusively uses census data and other exogenous statistical information, then extrapolates those statistics to our area.

They required pages of data, charts and graphs to reach the conclusion that we are an unusually old, childless and poor community, something we already know too well. Yet, despite heavy doses of data on demographics and economic conditions, they manage to say not one word about what is recognized here as our number one problem: our affordable housing crisis.

Anybody who had spent a little time on the ground here would know that our affordable housing crisis is driving demographics and economic challenges. It pushes young people and families away, and deprives employers of workers, depressing economic activity and stifling growth. Yet, not a peep about our biggest problem from these consultants in the picture they paint of Port Townsend’s population, economy and culture. Addressing that towering problem would push the pool way down the priority list of our immediate needs, and leave little money for the costly amenity of a new aquatic/fitness center.

Some of Ballard King’s statistical extrapolation produced manifestly absurd results, such as concluding that in 2022 the Port Townsend area likely had 1,305 people engaged in basketball, 173 adults participating in cheerleading, and 313 adults doing gymnastics. Other absurdities riddle their computations.

At the same time that they were crunching numbers to tell us how our community recreates and exercises, they ignored bicycling completely. Notice there is no entry for biking in the above table. Yet, we have one of the premier biking trails in the nation in the Olympic Discovery Trail and the gem of the Larry Scott Trail running from the Boat Haven to Four Corners. Those trails see heavy bicycle use every day, as do our roads and streets. But, again, not a peep from consultants sitting at their desks in Colorado trying to guess how we spend our time and stay fit.

They purported to exhaustively survey existing swimming pools in the area. But somehow they missed the fact that Cape George has its own pool and they placed the Mountain View Pool at Kala Point. Then they put the Kala Point pool in Port Ludlow. The Port Ludlow pools they relocated to Silverdale. This map also indicates two pools in Port Angeles, when there is only one, the William Shore Aquatic Center.

So detached are they from reality in Port Townsend, that on page 13 the Colorado consultants compared us to the State of Pennsylvania. One has to wonder if their report mixed us up with work they were doing for a community in the Keystone State instead of on the Quimper Peninsula, and where else in their report they confused us with other communities. This following graph, by the way, was used to make the case that our community is capable of spending quite a bit more money on recreational activities because the level of our expenditures for necessities — such as our very affordable housing — is below the national level and below that of… Pennsylvania(?)

Ballard King & Associates of Highland Park, Colorado, also concluded that over a thousand residents around Port Townsend and from the south county go to Planet Fitness and LA Fitness.

The percentages in this table apply to the “primary service area” around Port Townsend. Ballard King estimated the population of that area at 21,551, meaning they believe that in and around Port Townsend, 884 people (4.1% of the population) patronize Planet Fitness and 280 (1.3% of the population) go to LA Fitness. There is, of course, neither a Planet Fitness nor an LA Fitness in Jefferson County. The nearest Planet Fitness would require a ferry ride to Oak Harbor or a drive to Bremerton. There are no LA Fitness outlets on this side of Puget Sound.

But there are two fine full-service gyms, Port Townsend Athletic Club and Evergreen Fitness. Ballard King didn’t bother to inquire as to the membership and usage of those facilities.

How much were they paid to churn this stuff out?

Risky Business

Several versions of a future aquatic center have been proposed: the “basic” model (pool only); the “basic plus gym”; and the Full Monty, a large swimming facility with several pools, gym, exercise rooms, meeting rooms, etc. — something on the scale of a large urban YMCA. Ballard King projected that the annual operating costs of the Full Monty would be nearly $2.1 million, with revenues of about $1.7 million and a deficit requiring public subsidy of about $350,000.

The subsidy for any aquatic/fitness short of a Full Monty would be somewhat higher because it would have fewer profit centers, e.g., weight room, yoga studio, etc. As I reported in my first article on this feasibility study, Ballard King recognizes that the many private gym and exercise studios existing in our community already, from full service gyms, to yoga and pilates studios, pose a “challenge” for the financial success of an aquatic/fitness competitor.

Herb Cook, a current Director and Past President of the Olympic YMCA, weighed in on the financial feasibility of aquatic centers in a Nextdoor comment on this issue. He wrote that the Sequim YMCA in 2019 (the last year before the pandemic lockdowns) had “more than 3,000 membership units (family and single) and 6,000 total members. Total revenue was slightly less than $2.2 million, total expenses slightly more than $1.8 million, net operating surplus more than $300,000.”

The Sequim YMCA is a Full Monty and then some. It offers a “six lane lap pool, a shallow family pool, hot tub, dry sauna, gymnasium, racquetball courts and wellness area.” It also offers basketball and volleyball and personal training and a steam room.

6,000 total members, 3,000 “membership units” make the Sequim YMCA feasible, according to Cook. Ballard King’s projections for the number of individual “membership units” for a Port Townsend aquatic/fitness center don’t come close. They project only 1,435 purchases of monthly and annual passes, 485 ten-visit pass sales, 55 daily passes per month.

The Sequim YMCA’s financial picture is the opposite of what Ballard King projects for a potential full-scale PT aquatic/fitness center. Where the Sequim YMCA brought in $2.2 million in revenue, PT’s top model is projected to bring in $1.7 million. On the expense side, PT’s projected operating costs would be almost $2.1 million versus just over $1.8 million for the Sequim YMCA. The amount of the projected PT aquatic/fitness center’s loss would be almost what the Sequim YMCA has seen as an operating surplus.

Proponents of a new PT aquatic center like to point to the William Shore Aquatic Center in Port Angeles. In my prior report, I showed that the projected admission fees for a new PT facility would be almost twice those charged at Shore. The Shore center relies heavily on property taxes to cover the difference between its operating costs and earned revenues.

Shore was built in the same era as the Mountain View pool and has undergone much maintenance, renovations, upgrades and expansions. It is now a very modern, attractive facility with several aquatic recreation offerings and a few “dry land” programs like yoga and personal fitness classes. It is situated in a younger community with a population more than twice the size of Port Townsend’s.

Yet it still requires a public subsidy of about $1.7 million annually, according to its 2022 budget. Those funds are collected through property taxes imposed by a metropolitan park district.

The Shore center’s 2022 budgeted operating costs were $1,622,715. This is a number generated with years of learning from actually operating the facility. The Ballard King projections for the comparable PT facility are $1,268,557, significantly below what the Shore center has found it needs to operate.

But we are supposed to believe that a PT aquatic/fitness center with higher operating costs, in a smaller community, with a very old and poor population, will need a subsidy only a quarter of the size of Shore’s? To hit that target, Ballard King assumes the aquatic/fitness center will enjoy a geometric jump in revenue that requires our old and poor population to pay admission fees about twice as high as those charged at the Shore Aquatic Center.

At least Ballard King, on page 50, near the end of their study, tells us not to take their projections to the bank. They disclaim any guarantee that their numbers may be relied upon fully. Do so at your own risk.

We Can Do That

No engineering analysis of what it would cost to upgrade and/or keep the Mountain View pool going as it is currently built was conducted before the push for a new aquatic/fitness center became public. Carrie Hite, the city’s Director of Parks and Recreation Strategy, stated in an email that, “We have opted not to spend close to $100K on a current full systems and structural analysis.” I have seen nothing to suggest that the city sought competitive bids for such an analysis. Hite could be pulling that number out of the air.

A full systems analysis was done for the city in 2001 by The ORB Organization, architects-planners-engineers, of Redmond, Washington. That analysis concluded, “The existing pool is quite adequate for basic instruction, training and aerobics,” but was not suitable for competitive swimming or diving. ORB examined all aspects of the pool and concluded it could be upgraded to meet current code requirements for $167,714 and its life extended for another 30 years–to 2031–for $355,113.

The roof does require replacement. Hope Roofing of Port Townsend conducted an inspection that found significant leakage and structural issues, such as soft spots where it would be unsafe to stand. City council recently had the option of fixing the roof properly, with a long-lasting, multi-decade solution, at the cost of $1 million. It opted for a temporary membrane fix that will last only a few years.

Hite wrote in her email that, “Parts for the pool are not manufactured anymore, so the pool is one breakdown away from closure.” We have also heard this at the town halls from Opsis, the Portland, Oregon architectural firm responsible for the conceptual illustration at the top of this article. They claim that parts for Mountain View’s pumps and filters cannot be purchased, so the pool only has a few years left before it must be scrapped.

But that is not necessarily true.

“We can fabricate anything for the pool,” Pete Langley, owner of the Port Townsend Foundry told me.  His business is a custom and production nonferrous foundry in operation since 1983. They fabricate products from architectural castings to industrial castings to maritime hardware to antique replacements.

“I can build a pump from scratch. The equipment for a pool is not complicated. We can make anything the pool needs right here. We are a maker’s community,” Langley said. I was standing with him outside his operation in Glen Cove. He waved at other businesses that design and build sophisticated equipment and machinery. His “we” referred to his neighbors as well as his own highly skilled workers.

Langley is a current board member and the 2022 chairperson of the city’s Maritime Trades Association. “Look, we build boats. Some of the machinery in the mill is a hundred years old. The people in this town can fix a pool.”

Port Townsend’s annual Wooden Boat Festival is around the corner. The Port Townsend Foundry and other businesses here keep those magnificent classic boats going. They fabricate the hardware and parts “that are not manufactured anymore.” A pool’s simple filter and pumps are a lot less complicated and demanding than anything that heads out to the open ocean.

I have written Hite to ask if the city has consulted with Langley about fabricating locally any parts needed for the Mountain View pool. I am still awaiting a reply.

A Rigged Game

A decision was made by someone that a completely new aquatic center is going to be built. Opsis was brought in from Portland not to critically evaluate whether the existing pool could be renovated and upgraded, as the Shore Aquatic Center has been, but to promote a new pool through highly orchestrated “town halls.”

Opsis stands to land a lucrative architectural contract if the city gets the funding to build one of the versions of a new aquatic/fitness center.

At these “town halls” Opsis handed out colored circles with adhesive backing. Audience members were instructed to vote their preferences by sticking the dots on the artist conception of a new facility and selected features they liked (see our January 2023 article). Opsis did not make available any “No new aquatic center” option.

When questions were raised about the feasibility of addressing Mountain View’s needs, Opsis dismissed them out of hand. It was either go with one of the Opsis renderings of a new aquatic/fitness center or go without a pool — a stark choice that alarmed many of the frequent, elderly users of the pool who attended these “town halls.”

In the latest on-line survey people could vote only for which taxing method they like to raise the funds to pay for a new aquatic/fitness center. A “no new tax” option was not offered. At the last town hall held at Fort Worden on July 13, 2023, in response to a question from the audience Hite revealed that only about 150 people had been participating in the survey that was providing direction to the process.

“The Mountain View pool is nearing the end of its life,” has been the drum beat from Opsis and city manager John Mauro. That is an urban myth unproven by any engineering analysis. It is a talking point, and a talking point only, to drive people towards approving taxes to build a completely new, and vastly more expensive facility with implausible financial viability.

A responsible approach would have been to do a full engineering systems analysis at the beginning of this process. Instead, someone in City Hall launched a campaign to go after $38-53 million in new taxes to build a new aquatic/fitness center on a scale seen in larger urban areas.

The first installment was the $175,000 paid to Opsis for its drawings and “town halls” and whatever was paid to Ballard King for their “feasibility study.” Throw in the six-figure salary being paid to contract employee Hite whose job as “Strategy Director” is promoting the new pool (and a remake of the golf course), and all the time spent by city employees and others on the town halls and behind-the-scenes meetings to secure taxes for a new pool. We will never know what could have been accomplished with those funds if instead they had been invested in addressing Mountain View’s needs and finding a way to keep what we’ve got as they did in Port Angeles… and also Anacortes, by the way.

Opsis presents its final recommendation to City Council on September 5, 2023. Hite has said the goal is to get a proposed tax measure on a special election ballot in February 2024. The two tax measures under consideration are a property tax hike that would hit properties in Cape George, Discovery Bay, Irondale, Port Hadlock and Chimacum (and areas to the south), Marrowstone Island, and Kala Point, as well as Port Townsend. The other tax measure being considered is a county-wide sales tax.