Only 4.5% of Washington’s emergency room hospitalizations were COVID related for the seven-day period ending October 14. As of October 14, only 18 people statewide with COVID-like symptoms were on ventilators.

You won’t get much detail on the state of the COVID outbreak in nightly television news updates. They only report new cases and deaths and total numbers, and always play up the drama. The old adage applies equally to COVID news as it does to other reporting: “If it bleeds, it leads.”

COVID has been a serious challenge, but never a dire situation for our hospitals, as we reported previously. There has never been an out-of-control COVID hospital crisis, despite what our Governor said as he toured the Army field hospital he ended up giving away. We have always had a surplus of hospital beds, even at the peak of the COVID case load in March, April, and May. The stress on our hospitals is even less now.

In this report we dig into the latest charts and tables from the Washington Department of Health.

The situation continues to get better. 2,169,192 Washingtonians have been tested for COVID as of 10/15/20. Total positive tests numbered 96,185. Deaths counted as a COVID death (and there are reasons to believe the figure is inflated) numbered 2,232, producing a mortality rate of 2.3%. This is much less than half of the death rate earlier this year, meaning that the daily death numbers have dropped so dramatically they are pulling the overall average down.

Six counties still report no deaths. Twenty-three counties report 10 or fewer, and thirty-one counties report fewer than 25 deaths connected or suspected of connection to COVID. As we reported previously, the concentration of COVID deaths continue to be limited geographically.

The distribution of deaths by age has not changed except by 1% during the entire COVID episode. 89% of all deaths continue to be among those older than 60 years, and 51% of all deaths are among those more than 80 years old. No one under twenty years of age has died from COVID. Unlike the flu, COVID is not killing children.

Hispanics have accounted for 40% of all positive tests, versus being 13% of the state’s population. No other ethnic or racial group has been so disproportionately infected. Whites, while comprising 68% of the population, have accounted for 48% of the positive cases. The reasons for these disparities remain largely speculative, but that has not stopped some activists from seizing upon them for political purposes.

By contrast, when it comes to deaths, all racial and ethnic groups closely match their percentage of the population. No group has suffered disproportionate mortality. Hispanics account for 14% of those deaths counted as a COVID-connected death, while their percentage of the population is 13%. Whites’ mortality percentage exactly matches their 68% of the population.

Overall, the survival rate for COVID patients is now nearly 100%, only dropping to 94.6% for those above age 70. That remains the best news of all.

The Economic Hit: Incredible Good News, But…

Jefferson County’s unemployment remains higher than the national average, down markedly from the first months of the Governor’s lock down order. Jefferson County unemployment stands at 8.8%, compared to the state average of 7.8% and the national average of 7.9%. Neighboring Clallam County’s unemployment comes in higher at 9.6%.

In May 2020, Jefferson County’s unemployment rate reached 16%.

A strong stock market, federal stimulus, and aggressive monetary policies have no doubt contributed to the historic snap back from grim economic measurements that were being compared to the Great Depression. The stock market gains in past months have no historic parallel. Small business confidence has returned to pre-COVID highs. We have recently seen the most new jobs ever created in the nation’s history in such a short period of time.

Sadly, the list of permanently closed businesses in Washington continues to grow. Downtown Seattle has seen hundreds of businesses announce permanent closures, a consequence not only of COVID restrictions, but also the Antifa/Black Lives Matter riots, escalating crime, the regulatory environment and problems from an uncontrolled homeless population.

The list of dead businesses elsewhere has also continued to grow. There is no official state count of closed businesses, but a Facebook page, Inslee’s List–The Dead Business Log, collects daily posts about dead businesses in communities across the state. The posts share owners’ sad statements about their decision to close, local newspaper articles on communities losing businesses or eyewitness accounts with photos of the closed businesses.

These business closures translate to fewer employers, and a redirection of commerce from small businesses to large corporations that were permitted to continue to operate under the the Governor’s orders. Amazon and Costco have seen record sales during past months while small businesses died.

Increased economic concentration may be a legacy of Governor’s Inslee’s actions. The destruction of small businesses could be a lasting structural obstacle to a complete recovery, as small businesses are primary job creators.

We are still far from that complete recovery. 2019 saw historically low unemployment in all demographics, with the lowest unemployment and highest labor participation rates on record for Black and Hispanic Americans, as well as women. The U.S. reached a 50-year low of 3.5% unemployment in September 2019. Washington’s unemployment rate for January 2020 was 3.9%, half of where it now stands.